TRIA renewal bill not yet whipped and sawed by House

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) could get a vote Thursday in the Senate as well as the House, although most say that division and discontent, as has been reported, could move the vote until next week.
No one yet is “feeling lucky.”
The Speaker’s office, when contacted early this afternoon said a vote was scheduled Thursday for H.R. 4871, but that is likely premature–observers and staffers say the 218 votes aren’t there yet for the bill that passed out of the House Financial Services Committee under Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Tx,  a month ago.

At best, they’ll get the GOP whip count Thursday, and that will determine whether–and then, when–the majority might schedule the vote, said one person familiar with the Leadership’s routine.

“No way,” said another regarding any vote in the Hosue on TRIA this week.

Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.’s office said there was nothing on the schedule for TRIA as of yet.

In the meantime, where the two versions will meet in terms of their provisions for the program’s extension and trigger threshold is still an open question.

It would bifurcate nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological (NBCR) attack coverage from losses incurred from an attack using conventional (or non-NBCR) materials. In the House bill, which many insurers cannot stomach as-is, the trigger would increase incrementally from $100 million in calendar year 2015 to $500 million in calendar year 2019.
The Senate bill is a seven-year extension maintains the trigger at $100 million and increases the recoupment amount over five years by $10 billion. For more details, see <a href=”http://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2014/06/13/hr4871 CBO score” target=”_blank”>article:
H.R. 4871 would extend TRIA for five years, through Dec. 31, 2019.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)  has scored H.R. 4871, estimating that enacting H.R. 4871 would increase budget deficits by about $500 million over the 2015-2024 period. Changes in federal revenues and spending, however, would continue beyond 2024.
Enacting the renewal legislation would lead to additional spending of $250 million and additional revenues of $1 billion after 2024,the CBO estimates. Thus the estimated net budgetary savings after 2024 would be slightly larger than the estimated net budgetary cost between 2015 and 2024, the CBO stated July 15th. The CBO factored in the proposed National Association of Registered Agents and Brokers (NARAB II) reform, as well.
The CBO estimates that after taking into account all revenues and direct spending, enacting H.R. 4871 would lead to a small reduction in deficits over time.
At the same time, the establishment of NARAB, which is to be attached to the House and Senate TRIA bills during a vote now, is facing a sunset provision two years after the first license is issued in a floor amendment added by Sen. Tom Coburn, Md., R-Ok.
Some say it could have been worse and that NARAB otherwise has very strong, bipartisan, bicameral support.
According to one source, Senate supporters of NARAB and TRIA reached an agreement with Coburn where he would agree to a two-year sunset of NARAB – two years after the first NARAB license is issued to an individual after some back and forth on the clearinghouse provision.